10 Tips For Handicapping College Bowl Games
10 Things To Consider When Handicapping
Bowl Games....
Handicapping bowl games has a few
different things to consider when trying to beat the line. You obviously
still have to take your normal statistical handicapping formulas into consideration,
but there are situations that are unique to handicapping bowl games. Here
are the ones I consider to be important when doing your analyzation. #1
- Look for teams coming into their bowl with momentum...I like to look
at the last 3 games. Teams coming in on winning streaks are more to my
favor than teams that have lost their last game or 2 out of 3 of their
last 3 games. #2 - Watch for the "I'd rather be home watching TV" teams.
These are teams who feel they were slighted in the bowl they accepted.
Some of the better teams in the country having to settle for lesser bowl
games have a tendency to not even want to be there. I't's like an embarrassment
to them and mentally are not prepared with a winning attitude. #3 - On
the other side of the coin from #2, watch out for teams who are just excited
to be there. Some teams who had no thoughts of playing in a bowl game at
the beginning of the season have a tendency to feel their season has been
accomplished and whether they win or lose doesn't really matter. They feel
the season is already made. #4 - Look for teams who have "been there, done
that". There is a lot of hype and distractions during bowl game week and
teams that have never experienced it may be at a disadvantage when facing
a team with bowl experience. #5 - Look for teams with coaches who have
considerable bowl game experience and especially a winning record in bowl
games, this demonstrates an ability to "win the big game". Experienced
coaches have an edge on preparing their teams for the hype of bowl games
over a coach who is a first timer. (Continued from previous newsletter)
#6 – Seeing as all bowl games are played on neutral fields, it is really
a road game for both teams. I like to give an edge to teams who have had
winning records on the road, especially against the spread during the regular
season. Teams that do not have good road records will have the added problem
of dealing with all the hype. Bowl experience of the coaches also plays
a big part in the preparation, discipline and conduct of the players when
on the road. #7 – Handicapping the regular season is certainly a little
easier as you have both teams having played basically the teams within
their conference. This makes it easy to compare results against common
teams. In bowl games you don’t have that luxury, but comparing the results
of common regular season opponents that do exist is one of my favorite
angles for getting an edge in handicapping bowl games. If team A for example
has lost two games by an average say of 10 points per game to two teams
that team B has beaten by an average of say 7 points, you most definitely
have to figure this into your final prediction. Also in this category,
you will want to weigh the performance of the two teams against teams that
are in bowl games. #8 – Overall schedule strength is a very important factor
in handicapping bowl games, especially the strength of the conference of
both teams. A team coming from a major conference will often be matched
against a team from a much overall weaker conference. Playing a full schedule
of much tougher opponents will give a big edge over a team playing their
entire schedule against a lesser conference. #9 – Always give an edge factor
to teams that have a high percentage of spread covers during the regular
season, especially covering the spread as a underdog. This indicates that
they are playing “up” against the tougher opponents and have had a lot
of value against the line. This will become even more prominent in a big
game such as a bowl game. #10 – Look for teams that may be in a revenge
situation from the previous bowl season. It is not revenge against the
team they are playing but more so to overcome a poor performance from a
previous bowl game experience. A team who last year was a first time bowl
team and got blown away, will have gained a lot of experience and will
be much more prepared and will want to erase the stigma from last year.
As mentioned earlier, you still need
to go through the normal statistical routine of handicapping the game including
the objectives such as injuries, field conditions etc….The above are angles
that are primarily unique to handicapping bowl games. Good Luck and hope
you have a great bowl season.
Tony Diamond has been a sport betting
advisor and and consultant for 16 years and has provided his clients with
16 consecutive winning seasons in all sports.
Get My Free Play-of-the-Day at: http://www.tonydiamond.com.
Article Source:
Amazines.Com
